The DeFi Report

Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:10] Macro concerns are growing louder. The question today, do we keep fading those concerns and hold the stance that crypto is in the fifth bull market or should

Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:21] we take a second look at macro? That's what we're doing today. We're taking a second look at macro to see if we can continue fading it. It is September 30th, 2026. Welcome to the DeFi report. Let me give you some stats. This is how Mike opens today's report. Since June 30th, that would be the point at which Bitcoin hit its low during the bear market.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:45] The bottom of the bear, the 10-year has risen 80 bps, okay? So almost a full percent. Oil is up 29%. And yet, over that same period of time, Bitcoin is up 44%. This outperformed both the Nasdaq by a lot and also gold by 42%. And it's not just Bitcoin. 96% of all crypto assets in the top 50 crypto assets also outperformed even Bitcoin over the last 30 days. So should that make us more bullish? Or as Mike put it, are we whistling past the graveyard? Could this get us into some trouble? Stick around to the end. We're going to talk about all of that. But at the end, Mike is going to go over the bull market price targets on the watch list. We'd been teasing this for a number of weeks. I had been looking forward to it, and now it is here. It is gift wrapped. It has just been delivered for TDR Pro members this morning.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:47] Maybe we'll share a few of those price targets from the list, over 40 assets there. Mike, last week, you put the odds...

Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:55] At 85% that the early bull market was confirmed. So that's pretty high for you. It's definitely higher than I've ever heard you talk. And you told us the one thing you were watching, you told us you were watching to see if we could get a second weekly close on Bitcoin above the 50-week moving average. Did we get that second close?

Michael Nadeau:
[2:16] We did. We got the second weekly close. It was also above the high that we set back in Med as well. So we've kind of set like a higher high here or we've gone past the high that we went to in May. So, you know, this is basically what I'm grappling with right now. And I always come back to kind of what Charlie Munger always says. You know, you've got to know the other side's argument better than they do. So, you know, I think the consensus view is starting to form around macro risks. I think a lot of the risks that we've been highlighting over the last two to three months, even before I kind of flipped into a more risk on mode, was a lot of the stuff that we're starting to see play out in macro with higher rates, with the prolonged war in Iran. Um and this is really kind of the theme of the report what what i keep coming back to as i go through sort of the macro side of the equation and the risk there is i i still keep coming back to what has already played out in the crypto markets and so i kind of went through like a full recap of all the kind of important things that we look at, on the crypto side and then we kind of revisit what what are some of those risks on the macro side so i think that's kind of the theme of the report, the markets have been, we've seen sort of this rotation from.

Michael Nadeau:
[3:36] Kind of the early speculation that was happening on Robinhood chain a few months ago has drifted into kind of what I would say is like quality altcoins. So we've seen a lot of outperformance. You mentioned in the intro there, you know, most of the top 50 coins have been outperforming Bitcoin and Bitcoin has been outperforming, you know, Nasdaq and gold over that period. So markets are getting, I would say, a little bit frothy.

Michael Nadeau:
[4:02] We just had that second weekly close over the 50-week for Bitcoin.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:06] And what is the 50-week, by the way?

Michael Nadeau:
[4:08] It's 76.8. It's still dropping. So it's 76.8 right now.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:12] But we had a healthy close. What was it?

Michael Nadeau:
[4:15] We had a healthy close over 83K. So we're still well above the 50-week moving average. That's two weeks in a row that we've closed above that level. And so, you know, I would expect maybe we'll see a revisit to that 50-week before we sort of get the next move. But really kind of just resetting, kind of going through macro and really trying to feel like we have, you know, this is the right time to be risk on in the markets.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:41] Yeah, I could just like having worked with you a while now, Mike, I could tell you things are going so well, you're getting worried. You know, just like, hey, what am I missing?

Michael Nadeau:
[4:50] I think we probably would have been expecting the markets to be bottoming around, you know, this time. Instead, we're in a fully risk-on stance and there's a lot more risk management that's coming into portfolio management right now than I was expecting to have. I thought I'd probably still be, you know, allocating to the markets a little bit more aggressively. Instead, we're kind of doing some risk management, going through the portfolio, going through the positions, looking at the market broadly and trying to determine kind of where we're going here.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[5:22] Well, when you're up so much, it's sensible, I think, to do that and to look around and to see what's happening in the macro. And there are some concerning measures there. At least we'll talk about them and see what your prognosis is at the end of this. And then we'll end with key indicators as well, or key price points. Let's start by maybe, and I should say going into this episode, Bitcoin is about 83.8K at the time of recording. So still above that 50-week moving average. Let's just set up where we are right now. Do a recap. Because according to you, the market structure has changed, has undergone a phase shift of sorts. We have gone from a bear market, market structure, to an early bull market structure. Of course, early bull is one of the four stages in the market that we talked about a couple of weeks ago in this episode.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[6:20] Give us a quick recap on where that market structure sits today. Let's talk first maybe about the cohorts.

Michael Nadeau:
[6:29] Sure. Yeah. So a lot of themes that we've been discussing throughout the bear market. But really the key thing here is that we hit that prior cycle top zone in terms of the most coins consolidating in the 56K to 66K zone. This came back in mid-August. We shared this. We kind of shared at the time that it's like a box that we're checking along with a lot of the other high-level KPIs that we're looking at. And so, yeah, that was the first thing that, OK, you know, we can we can sort of check that box. We've seen coins rotating upwards a little bit since since that time, which we've discussed over the last few weeks. But we've got 37 percent of the coins that are now consolidating at these lower cost basis ranges between 56 to 92 K or so. That was 15.9 percent at the peak of the market. So so a total, you know, kind of reshuffling there. And that is where most of the coins are consolidating at this point.

Michael Nadeau:
[7:25] That looks healthy in terms of like a reset of the market structure. And then on top of that, we've seen the sort of what I call maybe the top buyer cohort, the people that came into the market during 2025, somewhat at the top of the market between $108,000, $127,000 or so. So we've seen those coins have reduced in supply by 55%. So that's pretty consistent with what I would be looking for in terms of kind of the, you know, weaker hands that came into the market at the top have capitulated, have rotated their coins. So we've seen that play out. We also saw what I would call like a capitulation in the ETFs. This occurred from like mid-May up until early July or so. we saw the ETF holdings in terms of like AUM and Bitcoin reduced almost 10%. We saw most of the ETF holders were, you know, were in an unrealized loss position at that time. So we kind of saw, you know.

Michael Nadeau:
[8:29] Somewhat of a reset on the ETFs. We've talked about miners. We typically look for, you know, also a bit of a capitulation in the miner cohort in terms of, their net position change. We also saw that play out in August as well. And we've seen the miners actually now starting to accumulate Bitcoin. So when I think about just the kind of like things that we were looking for in the bear market, I'm checking a lot of boxes here. There's not too many that I'm like, oh, you know what, this makes me nervous. And then you sort of overlay the macro and it makes it harder to kind of be in a risk-on stance. When I look at just kind of purely market structure, I feel like we've kind of rotated and reset that and it looks pretty healthy to me.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[9:14] This is all what we would expect to see then if the bear market has ended and if we were in an early bull market. So, so far, the indicators are full steam ahead. You also mentioned the report, again, reiterating this point, that bad news, it's no longer pushing price lower. So we had the 10-year news. We have real yields up, of course. We have oil spiking. We have quantum fears that has doubled down again as a narrative. A Clarity Act failed, so it's a major act of Congress. And it's a dead on arrival There were strategy concerns, and yet Bitcoin is up 44%. That indicates the classic sign of sellers were exhausted, and it was just time for the market to move. So that's where we are, and it feels like it's a pretty good setup. It's a pretty good indicator that we are in this early bull phase.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[10:08] But now let's talk about macro, and that's where you start to raise your eyebrows. Let's go on a tour of some of the macro indicators that you're seeing.

Michael Nadeau:
[10:17] I think what's concerning about macro, I mean, we've got three rate hikes now priced in, priced in. So going up through June or so of next year. So I think the concern and probably the thing that the market could be offsides on is sort of a longer rate hiking cycle. I think even when we got the first hike, most people are kind of looking at that saying, OK, the Fed needs to restore some credibility. We need we need we need a rate hike. And then we'll kind of monitor things. You know, there's no way they're going to just like keep hiking into the midterms and thereafter. And, you know, so I just kind of keep coming back to this and trying to forecast, you know, where things are going. What's what is the health of the economy look like? Like macro is an extremely big topic and you can get yourself pretty twisted up on looking at different, different things. Um, but when I kind of look at it from a high level, I think that the labor market still looks pretty strong to me. We're going to get some more labor data, um, on Friday. And I almost think the market's probably going to be looking for weakness there. Um, that, that sort of suggests that the economy or growth may be, you know, rolling over, which would then support, you know, potentially lower inflation, you know, a pause on some of these rate hikes. Um, so that's one thing.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[11:32] Can I just ask the highest of levels when it comes to sort of rate hikes being potentially bad for crypto? Is that just because at the Fed fund rate, you know,

Ryan Sean Adams:
[11:45] The shorter side of the curve and the longer side of the curve, if both of those are going up, then the cost of capital generally, the risk free rate for the global economy is increasing. And so as those rates increase, people say, well, why would I invest in this risk asset? Because I can go lock in five-year treasuries at like 5% to 6% or something like that. And so it's sort of a slurping effect of capital from the risk-on markets to risk-off bond markets or traditionally risk-off bond markets. That's what you're talking about. But doesn't that depend on whether crypto Bitcoin, let's say, is perceived as a risk-on asset or if it's something else? If it's more like gold, I don't know, that feels like it could be a little independent of Fed fund movement. In fact, some of the yield movement, you could say, well, that's there's part of the narrative going on here, which is like yields are going up because the U.S. Can't sell bonds because investors want a higher yield because the returns are less certain on the dollar.

Michael Nadeau:
[13:02] Yeah, I think that's correct in terms of like how this plays out. And when you see the rising rates, you know.

Michael Nadeau:
[13:10] If you're a baby boomer and you've got, you know, a lot of your wealth tied up in equities, maybe you move some of that, you know, into bonds and clip, you know, 5% on that and you're kind of happy and you feel like you're in an even safer investment. So I think that's the risk here is it's really, you know, investor allocation and where capital flows are ultimately going to go. You know, the question is, is this going to impact crypto and Bitcoin? And I kind of like continue to sort of fade that idea because of what we've kind of gone through in terms of the market structure reset, the leverage reset, all of our KPIs being hit and sort of like establishing a new base. You know are these investors are these the same investors that are going to be sort of reallocating capital i sort of kind of think think probably not and that these investors actually believe that bitcoin is in a better spot and will actually outperform and you'd rather hold bitcoin than hold treasury bonds and clip clip your five percent so that's kind of, kind of my view at the same time if um, if we have these rate hikes if we have um you know a rising, rising volatility in the bond market, if we see credit spreads blowing out, these are the things that, you know, sort of reduce liquidity conditions broadly in the market and could, you know, could impact the crypto markets. One thing I've been just looking at in terms of like the healthy, healthy economy, we talked about the labor market.

Michael Nadeau:
[14:36] ISM is in expansion mode right now. We've been looking at bank lending. We covered this in the report this week. Commercial and industrial loans are doing very well. So the banks are lending at these levels, which is interesting considering the higher rates. So there's still a lot of demand in the business environment for loans, and the banks are lending. So not only is the year-over-year growth in bank lending... 10.2%. But then if you look at the percentage of banks that are actually tightening lending standards, this just continues to decline, which is kind of interesting setup when you have, rising yields.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[15:18] Okay. So I'm trying to interpret that. Bank lending going up, that would be bullish for the economy. And you would think at some level, maybe more bullish risk assets, right? It's certainly not the sign of a recession. I don't know, like what are the concerning signs here? Because in this macro section, you paint a mix of some signs that are good. In fact, you kind of conclude some of this macro section with like the economy actually looks strong. And yet there are also some concerns. And when I looked at the concerns, it was sort of more along the realm of yields. Like even inflation here, you have a chart here where you're showing inflation and it's 2.4% and this is core inflation. So this is not energy in this 2.4%. You're making the point that actually core inflation, we're not doing too bad at 2.4%. The reason general CPI is a lot higher is because when you add energy costs, oil prices, et cetera, then we're kind of like north of 3%. But if energy were to go down, Iran war was satisfied, and even inflation is not showing a red alert. So like when we look at this full picture, there's a lot of good things that seem to be happening in the economy, and yet you're also concerned. So yeah, give me the ledger here. What's the good stuff and what's the concern part?

Michael Nadeau:
[16:47] Yeah, and on the inflation point, this is core inflation. So, you know, it's the argument here is like, okay, if you strip out food and energy, which are the things everyone needs to pay for, then inflation is in decline. But I think this is sort of giving the Fed probably some pause on future rate hikes if they're seeing like everything else is sort of dropping in price. And then if energy prices drop, then you would think that that would bring everything down with it. So that's one view. But yeah, I mean, I think the sort of high level of how I'm thinking about this is the economy is strong. And one thing that I worry a little bit about is... Kind of a 2022 like setup and i think that's this is starting to kind of get baked into investor psychology now a little bit where the economy is running very very strong and potentially rate hikes, could be inflationary which sounds kind of crazy but if you have well because of how much, interest expense that we have that is a you know that's an expense for the government but that's income to the private sector so that's you know paying out and it's actually creating liquidity, in some ways, which is an interesting concept when you get to the debt levels that we're at.

Michael Nadeau:
[18:02] But, you know, I think the main thing here is that bank lending is doing well. We know there's a ton of AI CapEx. We know on the fiscal side, we're still, you know, running a deficit, 6% of GDP. So there's like plenty of capital, you know, swirling around the economy. This, you would think that this would, that the core CPI would actually potentially be higher um than than what it is and it looks like it's in a downward trend right now, because the economy is is running so hot so kind of what i'm coming back to is like, basically all eyes are kind of coming into it to um what's happening in iran, what's happening with oil prices because the setup to me looks like you have a healthy economy, that is not super inflationary outside of outside of oil and if you take oil down then food prices probably come down that impacts the inputs on everything else. So food prices probably come down a little bit. So to me, this like all eyes are on, we've kind of come back to this theme a little bit over the last year since the war started. But if you do have some sort of agreement here, I don't know, you know, I can't forecast that. I have no edge trying to forecast what's going to happen over there. But if you did have some sort of agreement or, you know, we've seen some oil, you know, more oil is getting through the straight than was in the last few months. If we see...

Michael Nadeau:
[19:23] Sort of a forward outlook that looks positive for oil and oil prices come down, that could quickly reverse this three rate hikes that are being priced in.

Michael Nadeau:
[19:35] And maybe that is like a bullish, you know, indicator that we're sort of not, you know, now that we've gone so far with rate hikes, any flip in the other direction in terms of really what looks like oil to me, you know, you could have like a pretty interesting setup where you've got a healthy economy. Now oil is coming down and the Fed's probably pausing rate hikes and then that's your bullish indicator. I mean, i will i will say with all that said i still keep coming back to like the crypto market structure as the thing that's like uh i'm putting more weight on than some of these other uh macro risks out there.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:09] Sure okay so you're saying the rate hikes in the future potential of rate hikes that would make you net bearish let's say in your position um how and and so is oil price if oil price continues to rise and continues to go north. That puts more pressure on Warsh and the Fed to continue to raise rates. And that would be net bearish for you. However, there could be a positive catalyst here, which is just like oil prices go down. There's some peace in Iran. Something breaks in a positive direction there. And then what you're left with

Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:45] is kind of an economy that's pretty hot in a good way. It's like growing a lot in these measures. I want to ask you about one measure, though, that I'm not fully, I don't fully grok, I don't look at this a lot, but I know Michael Howell brings it up in his work a lot. And that is the move index. So what is the move index here? And it is getting a bit more volatile. In general, when Howell talks about the move index, and of course, we've sourced him here as

Ryan Sean Adams:
[21:21] One of the chiefs of measurement indices around global liquidity, which has a big effect on crypto markets and debasement markets like gold and that sort of thing. But Howell would say that rising a move index increases volatility here. And that is an early indicator of shrinking liquidity, actually. And so he looks at the move index and if it gets volatile, then he's saying shrinking liquidity is actually ahead and shrinking liquidity would be net bad for crypto, also risk on assets. So and what we see is a move index that is kind of getting a little spiky. Does that make you nervous? What do you agree with Howell and where do you disagree?

Michael Nadeau:
[22:05] I agree with Howell on this. This is like, you know, I think he's kind of like the go-to guy for tracking global liquidity, which I think just hit an all-time high this week. But this is kind of like, this gets folded into his mix and how he's measuring that. You know, he's looking at central bank balance sheets and a lot of number of factors, but he's also factoring in things like volatility in the bond market, which when it rises, is liquidity negative. So, yeah, that chart is a little bit concerning. We're starting to see it spike up a little bit. The last few times that it went to these levels where it was, you know, well over 100, 120 or so was just before the ceasefire back in March and then during kind of the tariff tantrum last year. So definitely a concern. I think policymakers are watching this. You know, we know Besant is out there trying to tamp down volatility with buybacks.

Michael Nadeau:
[23:03] Best since the house. Yeah. So best since the house, I mean, we talked a lot about that. And that was one of the things that kind of had me flip risk on. It is kind of interesting that since that's that, you know, he's come out and said he was the house and tried to, you know, announce the buybacks. I think he doubled them and kind of keeps coming out saying that they're going to manage it. We are seeing the 10-year rise and the two-year rise as well. We've been mostly focused on the longer end of the yield curve. But what's kind of interesting is the two-year has been rising faster.

Michael Nadeau:
[23:41] So the short end is actually rising faster than the long end. They're both rising, but the two-year is rising faster. So you have a yield curve that's kind of flattening there. We just talked a lot about bank lending. That is not good for bank lending because the banks are borrowing short lending long, if the short end's rising on them, that's pinching their kind of net interest margin. So, Again, I just think this all comes back to inflation and where rates are going to go, because that's going to impact, there's so many ripple-on effects onto that. It's also going to impact, I think, bank lending. But yeah, move index and the volatility in the bond market, definitely something that we're watching. If that goes up, I would expect liquidity conditions to, weaken and potentially see some volatility on the equity market side as well.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:28] So you think the economy is strong? You're a little bit worried about rate hikes in the future and, you know, kind of capital being sucked out by both rate hikes and rising yields on bonds. However, where does that leave you with the question? So, you know,

Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:47] you were taking a second look at macro because things seem to be going so well in crypto. After that second look, what's your conclusion?

Michael Nadeau:
[24:58] Conclusion is, you know, it feels weird to be risk on. It feels weird to have a crypto portfolio that's doing, you know, really well in this environment. And I think that's probably what's giving me a little bit of pause. But, you know, the portfolio is staying risk on. We're not, you know, taking profits or making any changes. And the reason for that is you know i do feel like we are in the kind of early stages here for the next crypto cycle, and we have had a move for bitcoin off those lows we've seen we talked about the altcoin space um really outperforming here over the last month or so um, i sort of view that as more of just like a re-rating of like the you know fear and greed and we were so oversold i think um, About 90% of the assets that were on the watch list fell into our fair market value price targets, which were mostly like 80 to 90%. We were projecting things to drop roughly 80 to 90% on a lot of those assets. And so we had the air came out of the entire space. And when that sort of flips, you can have all these things reprice and go up almost 100%. That's why we really tried to focus on being in the market for that period. So I think that's what we're seeing play out. It doesn't, to me, feel like it's a late cycle or a late stage or too frothy. We have had periods during kind of.

Michael Nadeau:
[26:24] Early in a bull market or even in a bear market. The last time we had an alt season in August of 2022, and when I refer to alt season, I'm kind of referring to Coinglass' alt-season index, which is the one that I think is, really accurate and just kind of like, you know, broadly monitoring this. We had an alt-season in August of 2022 before FTX. And that was a period where ETH was up 60, 70%. A lot of Ethereum-based assets were up during that period. So I kind of just view it as like we were so oversold. We've kind of repriced it's still mostly crypto natives in the market um and the macro side of things definitely is is messy um, and i'm like kind of prepared for for volatility here especially heading into the midterm season, um but i'm i can't sort of justify just being like you know what this is too much this is too much risk i mean we've already we've seen this performance through a lot of this. And I don't think that we're, you know, if I was seeing like leverage really building up on Bitcoin and some of the other majors, we're seeing that a little bit on altcoins.

Michael Nadeau:
[27:34] But I just don't see the risks on the crypto side. And that's the side where I'm really putting more of my focus. So it's a rambling answer. And the other thing is like, I just think that the incentives of the policymakers acres... Possibly even Iran. We had China came to the US for a state visit last week. I just think the incentives of all these people is not to blow up the world and have this continue.

Michael Nadeau:
[28:02] And so I'm kind of putting this weight on like this gets resolved or there's some sort of interim agreement or we'll see where it goes. Nobody can really project that. But for me, it's more about the crypto markets and the reset of everything that we've seen play out over the last 12 months or so.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[28:20] So market structure, crypto market structure continues to overweight any macro concerns that you see. And here's how you put it in closing. If you're looking to get exposure to crypto, macro may still have you on the sidelines. We acknowledge these risks. At the same time, we continue to be of the view that everything that played out in the crypto markets, this market reset, should carry more weight when assessing risk. So taking a second look at macro, reaffirming early bull, you're feeling comfortable in the deployment. In fact, I believe you deployed even more into crypto this week. It was an asset. I'm not going to mention that. That's for TDR Pro members, but I enjoyed that alert in my inbox. This was a new asset. I believe it's already up from when the alert went out. So that's happening as well. One maybe question I have in this framing of, you know, is crypto whistling past the graveyard here or are we okay? And you're reaffirming that we're okay.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:23] What about stocks? Do you have a view on stocks? Because it seems like.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:29] You're saying there's no graveyard here. There's actually a lot of life in the graveyard. But stocks are doing kind of the same thing. Not quite at crypto. It's not up 44%. NASDAQ just locked in an all-time high last Friday, I believe, something close to that. And S&P is within 1% of an all-time high as well. Stocks doing very well. Do you have any outlook on stocks? Or is that just a different asset class that you don't kind of consider? And you think crypto can decorrelate from that as well and trade independently as we've seen it do the last three months?

Michael Nadeau:
[30:02] Yeah, it's been doing it. And the question is, you know, is that going to continue? You know, my NASDAQ calls haven't been super accurate, so I should probably stick to the crypto side of things. I think on NASDAQ, you know, we've kind of had like somewhat of a year long period here where we haven't moved too, too, too much, especially over the last six months or so. So, you know, what's kind of interesting there is MAG7 looks like it wants to sort of break out again and go to all-time highs. Kind of interesting. I mean, I've seen a lot of people pointing out that breadth, in NASDAQ has been falling off, breadth in the S&P 500, meaning that there's just less participants that are still doing well.

Michael Nadeau:
[30:47] I think the other thing to consider is that like we've had kind of like these like rolling, you know, recessions in parts of the economy. Like even when we've seen like a lot of selling, you know, from different sectors within the NASDAQ, we had, you know, SAS went through almost like a recession, you know, especially in terms of the stock prices. We know the real estate market is not doing well with these elevated interest rates. And I think if you look at pockets of the economy outside of AI, a lot of stocks are down, right? A lot of stocks are trading well below their 50-week moving averages. And so there's sort of like... It's hard to tell just by looking at the index or just looking at AI, but I think there's, you know, we've seen kind of like dispersion across the board there. So it's really hard to monitor. And I don't have a strong view there, but I feel like Bitcoin has bottomed. Maybe Nasdaq hasn't bottomed, but I do think that the crypto markets have bottomed and, you know, we're now inflecting up.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[31:54] I mean, NASDAQ to a great degree as well, the entire U.S. Economy is based on that monoculture of just the AI trade at this point in time. And as more of the economy is based around AI, it's a lot of eggs in that basket.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[32:09] And that's got to make you raise an eyebrow as well. Maybe that'll be in a future report, though. There are some housekeeping things. So a big deliverable to the TDR has been a revision to the price targets, getting price targets on the watch list ready for the bull market, I believe. So I'm going to pull that up. This is available for TDR Pro members, of course. And can you tell us what we actually have, what you've actually shipped on the price targets for all of the almost 40 assets that you're tracking now. So we had previously in the bear market, a fair market value and a deep value price point. It was a low price points. Now what I see is we have a bull bear target, a bull base target, and a bull bull target. That is a full bull. So three different price targets for each of these assets. What's available now for TDR Pro members, and how should people think about these price points? Yeah.

Michael Nadeau:
[33:18] Hopefully, I didn't jinx us here by flipping to the bull targets. We waited for the two weekly closes to release this. I think the way you described that there, when we were in the bear market, what we were doing was forecasting or trying to get an idea of where we thought fair value potentially would be with some of these assets that we wanted to add to the portfolio. This was helpful for me in terms of just we share where we're doing a lot of fundamental research during the bear market and covering assets, covering fundamentals, thinking about themes and sectors, and then having those price targets just help me kind of, allocate and kind of have conviction that, okay, it's time to boost some capital in. So I think it serves as a decent sort of guide. So what we've done now that we think we're heading into the bull market is, flipped all of this in the bull direction where we're now trying to project, what is our sort of bear case, what's our base case, what's our bull case in terms of where we think some of these assets can go. This is like a very rough estimate. Like nobody can predict where markets are going to go. But what we're doing here is just kind of folding in.

Michael Nadeau:
[34:29] Fundamentals, what we think the key themes and sectors are, where we think the hot ball of money is most likely to move to. We're looking at kind of historical precedents. There's a lot of like, kind of like sort of nuance to this in crypto. A lot of times, you know, things that maybe, you know, had a really good cycle in the last cycle may not get to all time highs. And so we're trying to figure out which areas of the market we maybe not, won't get back to the levels that it got to in 2025 or 2021. And then what are sort of the newer things or stuff that came in maybe during the last bull market hasn't had a full cycle that's maybe developing a stronger narrative. And people can sort this on our website in terms of like our, you know, what's the, our, our bullish take and what are the assets that we think are, going to be most bullish on if that bull thing plays out, you could sort it by the bear case. Maybe that's the most sort of safest assets. I think this is a resource for people to potentially think about building out a portfolio. We try to pair this up with our research reports, data dashboards as well. And then we're also tracking, instead of tracking where these assets are trading relative to their prior cycle high, we're now tracking that from the cycle low. And what's interesting is like almost all of them are up.

Michael Nadeau:
[35:51] Uh, over 40% or so from the lows, you know, that we established in, um, you know, during the bear market, some of that came during August, some of it came earlier during, during the bear market. Um, so this is, you know, like I said, rough estimates, but a helpful guide, I think, in terms of managing risk, uh, as we move through the cycle. Um, the other thing is we're going to have a report going out on Friday that this, again, a report I wasn't expecting to be writing, in, you know, late September, but sort of a risk management report. We're going to go through the positions, how I'm thinking about things.

Michael Nadeau:
[36:27] As we go through the cycle, we need to keep doing this. Like there's going to be times where we may say, okay, something's up a lot. We think this part of the market or this sector or this theme has sort of played out. And what we forecasted has sort of played out. We need to, you know, take profit. Possibly reallocate that and i i think that these targets can sort of help with that process as well if you're looking to maybe something has separated but there's another theme that, we're bullish on that hasn't really played out yet and there's opportunity to rotate we don't do a ton of that i would say you know during the during the bull market um, but i think a helpful resource for folks out there.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[37:06] And mike you said that's going to be friday's report that's only available for tdr our pro members, and you're going to go through some of these bull market price targets from the bear and the base and the bull bull case. Is that right?

Michael Nadeau:
[37:18] That's right. That's right. Go through all the positions, how we're thinking about things. Is there anything that we think shouldn't be in the portfolio at this stage? Is there anything that's up too much that we need to get out of? So we'll have some commentary and just kind of how I'm thinking about all that.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[37:32] I love it. And I got to say the deep value and fair market value prices on the watch list were hugely helpful to me and to other TDR Pro members. So hopefully these bull market prices will be as well. I'll just share one, which is Bitcoin. And the range is 2.5x to about 4.5x is what Mike sees possibly on the horizon. And again, that's just this point in time. So I'm sure you will adjust these

Ryan Sean Adams:
[38:01] numbers if new data persuades you in that direction. And we have a final bit of good news. If you are already a TDR pro member, it's been added to the website this week is a new referral program. Okay. So somebody asks you, somebody's texting you, what should I buy? Or maybe they're asking you the question of how high could Bitcoin go this cycle? You don't have to answer that directly. You can refer them to the TDR. They can become a TDR pro member. And this referral program gets you 20%

Ryan Sean Adams:
[38:37] Of the revenue that is collected from the first 12 months of that referral back to you in the form of a credit that you can use against your own TDR Pro membership. So you just share your link, you earn the credit, you can get up to $1,000 in credits. That's almost a way for you to be a TDR Pro member for life, for all the foreseeable future. All you have to do is generate your referral link and then start using it when you recommend TDR Pro to your friends. And of course, TDR subscribers at an all-time high. The next step is, I think, to grow this organically and the referral code is a way you can do that. Of course, Mike and I will be back next week, next Wednesday, so dial into the free episodes. It's available on Spotify, YouTube. Subscribe there and subscribe to the TDR website. I'm gonna end with this. none of this has been financial advice. This is an investor journal with price points. We're on the journey right alongside you. Thanks a lot. And until next time, stay curious.