The DeFi Report

Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:10] Welcome to The Report. It is July 8th, 2026, the title of today's report. The narrative is shifting again. And I think Mike is talking about a narrative of the lows, maybe they're in. Bitcoin closed above its 200-week moving average. That was on Sunday. It was trading 10% up from the lows that we talked about last week. And so whenever that happens, of course, the sentiment quickly shifts from, oh my God, it's all over to, was that it, guys? Was that the low? Maybe the low was in. So which is it? We're going to talk about that today. Do we fade this sentiment again or is it indeed time to buy back in?

Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:51] Many of Mike's indicators have actually already hit. We talked about that last week, but there's one that hasn't. That is this coin rotation paradigm that we've been talking about so much this year on the TDR. And you have some reasons to believe, Mike, that that's one of the best predictors we actually have for confirming the bottom. So we're going to talk about that. We're going to talk maybe some sailor, maybe some Clarity Act, maybe a bit of life in the altcoin markets, Zcash, what all that means. And then stick around to the end, guys, because something new is coming to the TDR. And as a TDR Pro member, I'm very excited about this. This is the first ever performance report where we get to see how this strategy is actually performed, not just this year, not just last year, but across multiple years. So Mike, I want to pick your brain about that. So

Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:42] But let's get to the main subject. I know markets, we just popped this open. Markets are trading down a little bit. I think now Bitcoin is down below 62K. And you're telling me this is on some Iran news. So we got that floating in here. But previously, Bitcoin had been up above the 200-week moving average, 10% up from the lows. ETH was 9% up in the last seven days. Got some altcoin outperforming. What were the most significant signs of life that you were seeing, let's say, earlier this week and then on Sunday?

Michael Nadeau:
[2:19] So, yeah, it's, you know, I would say it's broadly very quiet out there. July tends to be a very quiet month. People are out there touching grass. Hopefully everybody had a nice fourth and a little break there. And, you know, this time of the year and also like around the holidays tends to be like the quietest parts for the crypto markets. And I think that is true right now. Now, what's been kind of interesting at the same time is like within pockets of crypto, and I would say this is like strictly related to crypto natives and not really like outside money coming in, is we've seen like a little bit of a revival within the trenches. We had the Ansem, the Black Bull coin that I don't think he launched it or he adopted it.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[3:02] This is a meme coin, guys, if you haven't been tracking. It's a meme coin life we saw, actually. This is meme coin life,

Michael Nadeau:
[3:08] You know, emerging a little bit on Solana, a little bit of a narrative coming around Solana, real world assets on Solana. So there's like a few little pockets of, I would say, like sort of hope and speculation, things like that. For me, as an investor, I'm kind of looking at this and, you know, it kind of, you know, helps align to some of the things we've been projecting out, you know, this idea of meme coins as like kind of the social crypto, and it's really not not going to go anywhere. And I think we have more evidence of, you know, kind of some green shoots emerging in that area. At the same time, you know, I think when I look broadly at sort of the larger L1 assets, Bitcoin, very little demand out there to like speculate, I would say, in crypto right now broadly. And, you know, we keep coming back to this market structure data and we're going to get into that in more detail this week. But I think the reason I keep coming back to it and why I think it's such a strong indicator is for me, it really helps me.

Michael Nadeau:
[4:09] Pair basically the social sentiment and what i'm seeing on crypto twitter and these types of things with what actually starts to happen on chain like we all sort of sense like these ebbs and flows in the markets, when you can actually pair that with real on-chain data you can actually see how it gets reflected how the narratives line up with sort of um, you know behavior in the market so i want to kind of get into some of that and, and yeah you know my my view is that like okay bitcoin, Really kind of had a pretty nasty sort of reversal after getting up to 82K or so. Sellers may be getting a little exhausted. We may see a retracement move. We had some news with Iran. And it looks like maybe the ceasefire is falling apart. And maybe these blockades are coming back. So I think the markets are, maybe reversing a little bit of that now. So it's a lot going on.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[5:00] That's always hard to trade on because by, you know, this evening that could reverse yet again. You never know on that one, right?

Ryan Sean Adams:
[5:07] Well, so the cohort analysis is one of my favorite pieces of today is this coin rotation analysis that you're going to do. We're going to get to that and more to confirm whether Mike is fading this recent rally or whether he is buying in. But before we get there, we've got to thank our friends and sponsors over at Galaxy. Now, this one is for the institutional capital listening to the TDR, which we know they do. Galaxy is the name that you need to know. They've established themselves as a global leader in two areas, not just digital finance and assets, but also data center infrastructure that's powering AI. It's kind of unique because they have crypto on one side and they have AI on the other. On the crypto side, it's institutional grade trading, custody and tokenization. On the AI side, it is data centers, a 1.6 gigawatt data center called their Helios site. More than that, too. So if you want to check them out, go check the ticker. It's GLXY. You know it, and you can find out more. The link in the show notes, and just search up Galaxy to find out how they help institutions invest, build, and transform. So go check them out. Thanks to Galaxy for sponsoring. Okay, Mike, if I were to just ask you,

Ryan Sean Adams:
[6:22] Probability, what's your probability right now, nine and half months into this bear market that the lows of last week were hit. Or actually, let me ask the reverse. What's your probability that we still go lower?

Michael Nadeau:
[6:41] Probability we still go lower. So lower than 58K or so. I would put that at like 65% somewhere in there. Wow, 65%. More than 50%, yeah.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[6:51] Okay, let's talk about why you think that and why that is 65%. So we're going to ask you to back up your numbers. And I think it starts maybe and almost ends here with the cohort analysis. Can you guide us through the story here and what you see in these numbers and maybe talk to us like, I know we've seen this before on TDR episodes that we've done, but refresh us as well on what we're looking at here.

Michael Nadeau:
[7:18] Yeah, I know this is a little bit in the weeds, so bear with me here. And, you know, really what we've been doing here with this cohort analysis is, you know, the first thing I want to understand is like, are the people that bought the top, the people that came into Bitcoin, you know, in really basically when it was trading between, let's say, 90K and up to 126K or so, what percentage of those coins, have rotated out of those wallets on chain? That's kind of the first thing that we started to look at as the bear market was dragging on. What we can see is like roughly 51% of those coins that were really at the top buyer cohort. That's the 108K to the 126K zone. 51% of those have rotated out. So roughly half of those folks have coughed up their coins, got frustrated, couldn't deal with the volatility. They're out. So when we go to the next sort of cohort below them, the 92 to 108K cohort, which is also, you know, came in sort of at the top of the market.

Michael Nadeau:
[8:23] Those coins are only down about 17% in terms of the amount of coins that were bought at that level to where we're at today. So that tells me, you know, we probably have some more to go. If we look at the equivalent cohort from the 2022 bear market, that was like 47 to 56k. When we finished the cycle, they had coughed up 50% of their coins in the last market. So we're at a level where you would expect some more as time goes on. We talked about time-based capitulation. As more time goes on, we expect some of those holders to cough up their coins. The other thing that I'm really trying to assess here is to actually pay attention to how this all played out in the 2022 bear market. And we can sort of line up. What I'm doing here is trying to line up what I think the equivalent older cohorts were in 2022 and then get to where we think, things are shaping up in the current cycle. And what we can see here, you've got, I believe you've got the 2022. Yeah, so looking at 2022 here, what we can see is like.

Michael Nadeau:
[9:39] We're relying this up exactly 273 days into the bear market, and that was August 8th of 2022. And 5% of the supply was in sort of the prior cycle top cohort at that time.

Michael Nadeau:
[9:56] And what we can see is that the cohorts above it, so 21 to 25K, 25 to 29K, 29 to 34, all of these cohorts were growing in size, right? If you look at the right-hand side, you can see that all of those cohorts were up, you know, roughly nine months into the bear market. So what that is telling me is like a lot of these investors were happy to buy these dips a little bit early back in 2022. So all of these cohorts in the, let's call it 25 to 40K range, were rising. People are coming back into the market, buying up the dips. If we kind of go down, so that's nine months in. Now, if we compare what that looks like to, you know, the full cycle after we had hit the lows, what you'll find is that all of those cohorts that were picking up the coins.

Michael Nadeau:
[10:49] You know, call it 30 to 40K or so, all of those cohorts dropped compared when you look at the end of the cycle. And where did all the coins go to? They went into that zone right at the prior cycle top. So we went from 5% of the supply in that 17.8 to 21k zone, nine months into the bear market, that jumped to almost 13% once we got to the low. So basically, what this is telling me is like most of the reshuffling of coins actually happened like in the final quarter of the bear market. I think there's a number of reasons for this, the time-based capitulation elements of this, just the ebb and flows of the market, people giving up, getting frustrated. And I think in some cases, people that were buying dips.

Michael Nadeau:
[11:38] Um earlier in the cycle maybe you know getting frustrated realizing you know they were wrong about how deep the bear market might get they sell then they try to buy back you know at the lower levels so i think that the, the really going through this data helps me kind of visualize like really what's happening like in terms of uh, the way that these bear markets play out, and i think so far in the current bear market it's it's roughly following a very similar track, So if we go back up to that visual, we can see that the cohorts above this prior cycle top zone have picked up a lot of coins, right? So the 78 to 92k zone is up, you know, 9.3%. The 66 to 78k cohort is up 6%. And we've just started to see the prior cycle top zone, the 56 to 66k zone, start to pick up some coins. So it's starting to happen. I just think that there's a lot more reshuffling that could play out here. And as we see more weakness, it's starting to give me more conviction that this is probably the most likely path. And this is kind of how you get to like, okay, the probabilities are pointing towards maybe a lower low. That's kind of how I'm getting to that 65% or so.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[13:00] Okay, so let's try to make sense of this a bit more here, Mike. So you're saying the thing that you distrust about this recent rally, and the reason you're thinking the lows for Bitcoin may not be in, is because you haven't seen the coin rotation you'd expect to see during the conclusion of previous bear markets. So you're not seeing it. We've confirmed a number of other indicators. We talked about them last week. But the main thing that's just like you can't ignore is you're not seeing this coin rotation. But I want to push on this a little bit and pressure test this. You're comparing the coin rotation to 2022. I know you have some other charts from 2018, but in today's report, we're looking at the 2022 numbers. 2022, we had this big capitulation event. We talked about it last week, which was FTX. And that was a shock to the system. People genuinely who were first-time Bitcoin buyers during that cycle and the top buyers, that top cohort that you've been talking about so much, they genuinely thought it was over.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[14:07] How often does a $10 billion crypto exchange go bankrupt? That has never happened. And it happened that cycle. And so there was this really difficult, hard capitulation type of event, a shock, let's say. And it's not looking like that's going to be repeated this time. So maybe what we should do is take a look at the 2018 numbers rather than 2022. What I'm saying is maybe this time in some ways is different and maybe that's what explains these young buyers, this kind of like first top buyer cohort. Maybe that's why they're holding on because they're not seeing that type of capitulation event and shock to the system that we've seen in previous cycles. So there are some differences here that maybe mean the pattern is not going to repeat exactly as 2022.

Michael Nadeau:
[14:58] Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's if the pushback on this view that, you know, a lower low is coming. I think that's the main view. Where I come in on it is like, I don't know, I can't predict if we're going to have a credit event or something else. I also don't foresee a FTX-style unwind of a major exchange or a B-tier exchange. However, we do know that prices are down. There's a lot of leverage has been wiped out. And the thing that I like to come back to on the FTX thing is.

Michael Nadeau:
[15:40] FTX was probably insolvent for six months before we found out about it. And so I think it's easy to kind of look at the market right now and say, well, you know, we haven't seen this. We haven't seen the BlockFi, the Celsius, the Terra Luna, like some of the just more aggressive unwinds that we had in 22. But it doesn't mean that there isn't somebody out there that that is in pain and that, you know, we could we could have some event like that. So I wouldn't write it off that we can't have it. And. For me, like, I sort of just anchor to the side, like, I don't need to know, what the event is going to be. Like, there probably will be something that makes the markets go down. And the thing I care about is more is just like, okay, what's the human behavior? How are people going to act behind that? And what is the sort of structure of the market right now? I think the other piece that if you wanted to sort of fade this view would be like there, if I could come to some conclusion on a catalyst or.

Michael Nadeau:
[16:41] You know, a bullish catalyst in the market. So maybe that's passage of the Clarity Act that comes through. Maybe that's monetary policy or this idea of rate hikes. Maybe that gets priced out of the market. There would have to be some other stuff, I think, that comes in on the bullish side that can give you the conviction because we've been covering a lot of this data. And yes, a lot of these metrics that we check on a high level, we talked about the percentage of coins that were in loss were, you know, really kind of lining up with prior cycles. Those things look pretty good.

Michael Nadeau:
[17:15] But then also, you know, we just haven't come down to levels in terms of just the percentage decline for Bitcoin that I kind of expect we'll see. So we went down about 75% in the last cycle. if we went to 50K, that would still only be a 60% decline in a much shallower bear market. And so I kind of just am applying a little more weight to some of these other things. And historically, patience is, it just does kind of work. And so I want to kind of anchor to that as well. And so, you know, we're in the market, obviously, we've been buying and, you know, we're allocated and my cash position is, in a place where it's tilted, where the risk in the portfolio is less to the downside, right? When we're at the top of the market, I want to, point the cash position more towards, you know, risk is to the downside. I think the risk is starting to shift more to the upside. I just think, you know, we probably have a little more turbulence to navigate here.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[18:16] I want to make sure people get that take, right? Because there's a tendency for people like to put others, investors, just opinions in general into binaries of you're either bullish or bearish.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[18:28] If you look at the TDR portfolio, it points towards being bullish. I mean, you are a majority crypto at this point have been buying these dips and buying this bear market. So I think some people walk away and maybe this happens on crypto Twitter to you and be like, Mike is bearish. Well, no, he's not. He is tilted bullish from a portfolio perspective. He just thinks that the bottom is not quite in. And largely the reason for that is he's looking at coin rotation and hasn't seen what he expects to see for coin rotation this cycle. This is the way you put it. The data tells us that a large swath of Bitcoin holders did not believe Bitcoin would enter a prolonged bear market. That would be kind of that top cohort we're talking about. Despite what we've seen in the past, it's our view that these investors may become impatient, lose faith, give up if Bitcoin has another drawdown, establishing a lower low sometime later this year, which is where the probability supports.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[19:27] That's why you're at 65% probability. Okay. Let's talk about some other data points that we're seeing here. One is ETF volumes, spot volumes. Actually, all of this is really volume driven. How much trading is happening, perps, open interest. What is that pointing to you?

Michael Nadeau:
[19:47] So on the ETFs, I'm kind of anchored to this as, you know, is there demand? Is there any demand from institutions or just appetite from average investors to be in BTC. The chart we shared here is a seven-day moving average. And as we can see, there's been, you know, from the seven-day moving average perspective, zero net inflows for almost two months now. So the longest period of seeing that. And what I'm starting to see is like the outflows are dwindling down a little bit. So the outflows are coming off. There's less fear in the market, less sellers out there.

Michael Nadeau:
[20:25] We haven't really seen any indication that there's like sort of overwhelming demand on the buyer side. So that's kind of where the focus is starting to shift. Can we see signs of demand really not seeing that just yet? When I look at like spot volumes, that again, same idea. We tend to see spot volumes increase when either there's demand to come into the market and buy Bitcoin. And then we tend to see spikes during, you know, turbulence during volatility to the downside as well. Right now, we're just kind of at like cyclose in terms of, you know, spot volumes. And this is another, and we really haven't seen like these major spikes in on-chain trading volumes, partly because we haven't seen the massive rotation. I think when you look at the spot volume chart.

Michael Nadeau:
[21:19] The volumes just went parabolic during kind of the final quarter of the last bear market. That's when all the coins, you know, changed hands, as we talked about. I'm looking for something. It doesn't have to be as, you know, volatile as that period, but I'm looking for something. More activity on chain to kind of confirm that we've hit some of these lows. And then, you know, looking at just the open interest and things like that, that's just kind of like, is there speculation? Is there any animal spirits out there? Have we kind of like wiped out the leverage? I think we mostly have taken it out. When we look at this chart, we're down pretty much in line with where perhaps open interest came down in the last cycle. It's obviously a much bigger product now, and there's more people using perps. So we got to factor that in. But we have come off. And so, you know, I think right now it's just, you know, where's the demand going to come from? And if it doesn't come, is there something that sort of creates this, like, fear in the market again and the reshuffling of coins? And if I start to see that, then I think I'll start to build a much, much stronger conviction that we've established these cycle lows. And I'll get bullish, you know, for all we got, you know, bullish on a consistent basis.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:37] Full on bullish. We haven't seen full on bullish Mike yet.

Michael Nadeau:
[22:40] We haven't seen full on bullish Mike just yet. And I think that will come, you know, once I have more conviction, like that some of this stuff has played out.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:48] This is super key. So you need to see and you want to see spot volumes return. And that will happen probably at the bottom when Bitcoin price looks pretty low. And to connect these dots, this fits with the coin reshuffling story that you've been looking at and telling, which is, of course, the newer cohort, the newer buyers are selling to the veterans. They're selling to the older buyers and the older buyers are buying them. Like that's what happens during the late cycle of these previous bear markets. So you'd expect to see that in actual volume in some of these trading venues. And that's how you know that the coin shuffling is actually taking place. And that helps you confirm the bottom. So you're saying three things here. You need to see the coin shuffling.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[23:34] Typically, that coin shuffling, secondly, happens late in the bear market around this time over the next, say, three months or so. You'd expect to see if it plays out previously. And you'll confirm that you've seen it when we see some volume on some of these charts. So great takes there.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[23:53] Let's talk a little bit about some of the other things in the water right now. Sure. strategy, the Clarity Act, maybe some altcoins. There was some news coming out of strategy on the week that Michael Saylor has actually sold Bitcoin, taking those actions, not just announced that he might sell it, but actually sold Bitcoin in size. This is a 216 million worth of Bitcoin. This is a pretty large sale, although represents less than half a percent of the total micro strategy supply. You've called Saylor in the enterprise, right? You don't think it's going to cause a cascading unwind, but you've called this a mismanaged capital structure. Those are strong words, Mike. Tell me, what do you think's going on with Saylor right now and why is this mismanaged?

Michael Nadeau:
[24:42] I mean, he's kind of doing what, you know, he should be probably subscribing to the DeFi report so he can follow the cycle and be buying the lows and not be selling the lows. But I think, you know it's it's it's interesting I mean.

Michael Nadeau:
[24:56] The markets kind of faded this, right? He finally came out and announced like a pretty significant sell. It's like, you know, less than half a percent of their holdings. So it's not like a significant portion of the holdings. It is $216 million.

Michael Nadeau:
[25:11] And, you know, the markets kind of shook this off a little bit, I think. I mean, maybe the chart went down for a few hours or so. So kind of interesting that it just shook it off. And when he sold 32 Bitcoin and initially announced this, you know, it was much, there was a lot more fear in the market over it. You know, I think this is starting to resolve itself is kind of my take is they now have 2.5 billion of cash on the books to pay dividends on these fixed income products. Looks like it's about 17 and a half months or so of runway to pay those dividends. So I think, you know, if you're a stretch holder, you can start to get a little more comfortable. Maybe we see the stretch, you know, it's trading below that 100 par level. It's trying to get back up there. So maybe we start to see this resolve a little bit. You know, I think the reason I'm saying it's a mismanaged capital structure is he obviously doesn't want to sell Bitcoin. He would rather issue shares of stretch. He would rather issue shares of MicroStrategy, to fund both dividend payments and Bitcoin purchases. But the MNAV for strategy has just gotten to a place where he can no longer.

Michael Nadeau:
[26:26] Dilute strategy holders in that way. He's still diluting them when he sells Bitcoin because Bitcoin per share drops for strategy holders. So you're still doing it, but he's just sort of picking his poison here in terms of how he's managing this. And, you know, I think I don't see like this like margin call or something like this. That's a big credit event. I just think. It's something that the market's probably paying maybe a little too much attention to. It's creating maybe some buying opportunities. If you're a micro strategy holder, you need to probably be paying attention a little bit more. But I kind of think this is going to just kind of resolve itself at some point. We may, you know, maybe it gets worse if Bitcoin comes down and he still has to sell more, you know. But that's kind of my view on this. As a Bitcoin holder, I'm sort of just... Observing it from the sidelines and looking for buying opportunities.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[27:24] So this is a problem for MSTR holders, not for Bitcoin holders in your mind. How about the Clarity Act? So now the weight of probability on Polymarket is that's not going to happen this year. It still could. I think the odds are somewhere around 40%, but that's down from, what was it, like 70%, 75% in May of this year. And I mean, time is getting short in Congress. Uh what like do we need this could this be the upside catalyst that you were talking about to inject some some bullishness back into these markets what's your overall perspective

Michael Nadeau:
[27:59] Yeah you know it's it's tough i think you know we the industry i think needs this in the long term and it feels like the window is sort of closing in a little bit on us here but, And it's getting the in this window is closing because of concerns that the House, you know, is going to go to the Democrats and in the midterms. And that's going to that's going to basically reset this potentially reset this whole process if this bill doesn't get through by the end of the year. And so I think, you know, Polymarket has it under 50% right now. It doesn't mean this is, you know, this is not going to happen. But I think we need to see some significant progress here probably before the August recess. So like, you know, over the next month or so, if this is actually going to make its way through, does this, if it doesn't make its way through and we're in towards the end of Q3 or we get the clarity from what's happening on the ground that it's not going to pass? It probably does cause markets to drop a little bit, I would think.

Michael Nadeau:
[29:11] I don't think crypto needs it. Crypto has been here for, you know, what, we're going on two decades now for Bitcoin, and we haven't had this. So it's not going to force me out of the market or anything like that. It's just probably a negative catalyst, potentially, like at the lows is kind of how I see it. So something I'm watching for, but if it doesn't happen... You know, we're just going to have to reset the process, basically.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:38] Clarity, to me, represents an insurance policy against a future Gensler administration. It'd be really nice to lock in, but we may not get it. It's not existential, but there could be some upside there. I agree with you. Let's talk to Zek really quick, okay? Zcash, because this has been interesting. I know it's been on the watch list for a while for you, but you're waiting for something. You write this, Zcash continues to hold up relatively well. We're now nearly eight months from its peak. It's down 30% at the time of writing. It's down 30% from all-time high?

Michael Nadeau:
[30:10] Yeah, that's it.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[30:11] That's not very down in this economy. Okay, so what's your explanation for that? And is that showing you some resilience that like, hey, if it's... Performing this well during a bear market. Imagine what it could do during the bull market. What do you think about Zcash? Are you a buyer yet? And if not, when would you be a buyer? At what price point?

Michael Nadeau:
[30:36] I'm watching Zcash. We covered it. I like it. I think the privacy narrative, has durability. I think it'll come back strong. What I'm trying to assess as somebody who doesn't hold it right now is basically what you're saying. Like, is this just some new regime? And we've seen, you know, in this bear market, I would say it's been more difficult to navigate for this reason where we've had a lot of stuff just kind of like outperform Bitcoin in this bear market.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[31:06] And that's been a bit different. We haven't really seen that. We didn't see that in 2022. We certainly didn't see it in 2018.

Michael Nadeau:
[31:12] For sure. You know, you can have a, you know, there are plenty of people that have seen their portfolios, you know, rise significantly in a bear market. So that is definitely interesting. With Zcash in particular, we've been, I've been looking at it a little bit more this week. And my thoughts on it are that it's not in some new.

Michael Nadeau:
[31:35] So it has not dipped below its 50-week moving average, which tends to be the line where the chart structure starts to break down and you go into these bear markets. So it's holding sort of its bull market structure, I would say, right now. What I'm looking at is like, you know, the fundamentals are not really there. So, you know, we did see a pretty good increase in like the shielded supply of Zeke. We haven't seen like a ton of just, you know, activity on the chain in terms of users, you know, sending it around and transactions, things like that, which, you know, we don't have to see that. But it's sort of a signal to me that maybe there's just, it's a speculative trade right now. And that's kind of what this chart is showing is the amount of just perps open interest just went totally parabolic. And it actually peaked like well into the bear market. This is like, I don't know if I've ever seen a chart look like this, like, you know, six, seven months into a bear market where the demand to speculate on it was at its all time high. And it was up, you know, 8,200 percent in terms of perps open interest. So this is a very, very speculative vehicle right now. Even when we compare the perps open interest today to where it came down to.

Michael Nadeau:
[32:54] In February when I think it traded down to $200 or so it's still almost up 2x you know from those levels so, I'm kind of fading this idea that it's just in a new, it's just going to trade independently. And I sort of think that Zcash tends to have these like very long, you know, drawn out bear markets. It has tons of speculation late in cycles. And then it has these very long drawn out bear markets where this privacy narrative sort of falls apart. We may not see as deep of a bear market for Zcash, but I still think the probabilities point to it breaking that 50-week moving average at some point. It's still well above that level. It's about $306 or so.

Michael Nadeau:
[33:40] And so let's see if this sort of unwinds. It was able to rebound after there was an exploit a few months ago, and it sold off, and it rebounded very quickly out of that. But I think that chart is telling me that like with all of that speculation that occurred and getting to all-time highs for perps open interest back in late May period, But price was still unable to get to a new all-time high, and that kind of tells me that the air may actually be coming out of it. So something I'm watching, we'll continue to monitor this, and I'll become a lot more interested as a buyer if I do see a kind of trade-off and break that

Michael Nadeau:
[34:24] 50-week moving average.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[34:26] All right, let's wrap this up, Mike. So this is what you say in closing. In the near term, we think sentiment and narrative surrounding it, that is Bitcoin, might get louder around the idea that the low is in, but it will mostly come from folks who have been saying that for nine plus months now. So when I read that, that made me laugh a little bit. I think that is true. Last week, I asked you about limit orders. And I said, hey, if you could do one limit order for Bitcoin price, what would it be? I think you told me $55K. Is that still the number for you? If you're looking for kind of a dip, the next buy type opportunity, is it around there?

Michael Nadeau:
[35:07] I'd say $55K and $50K. So I kind of have pretty strong conviction we're going to see 50K. And so that's kind of the number. You know, if you're, you can buy 60, 60 versus 55, like not a huge difference there. But I think if we drop below 55, we're probably going down to 50, possibly 48K, something like that. That's 60, a little over 60% drawdown for the entire cycle. You know the the sort of deeper drawdown would be like 40k uh, that gets you that would be 68 percent drawdown which would actually be very in line with the drawdown the 75 percent drawdown versus like the 83 84 percent that we saw in 2018 so if it's stair steps, the way it's done in the past we could see 40k and that's you know, there would be a lot of coins shuffling at those levels.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[36:06] Yeah, and it's a great reminder for folks. It's not for Mike and how he runs his analysis in the TDR portfolio. It's not just hitting price points here. It's actually seeing that coin rotation capitulation. The data, that could happen at 55K, that could happen at 50K, that could happen below in order to get that access, of course. You need to subscribe right here on a weekly basis where we run these reports and also on the TDR where you can access this report and others. Something really cool that is coming to the TDR Pro, there's a little footnote in today's report, is something I think you're calling a performance report. And correct me if I'm wrong, but this looks like it's kind of like realized, unrealized gains, like performance of your strategy, the TDR strategy, not just over the last year or two, But even stretching back further, as a pro member, this is something I've hoped for and wanted for for a while. I know we have access to kind of what your moves are on the week, but just to see them charted over time, to see this strategy in action. What's that performance report going to include?

Michael Nadeau:
[37:15] Yeah, and this is something I view as like part of the service of the product, right? Transparency and sharing all of this. We share all of our trades and trade alerts and the full history is available on our website. What we're doing next week is kind of like, you know, it's sort of like you get performance reviews when you work at a corporation or something. We're kind of like just going through the entire strategy.

Michael Nadeau:
[37:41] We're going to start to report our realized and unrealized performance on a monthly basis. So we will share that. The reporting that we're sharing next week is going to be just TDR Pro. Right. So, so, Um, we are not going like the stuff that I, I don't really think it's fair for me to report the, you know, the big gate, the big wins that I had before they were available at TDR pro members. So we're only reporting from TDR pro inception, which was about a year ago. So about a year into this product, we started sort of at the end of a bull market period when I was already kind of going risk off. We ended up, um, you know, doing really well towards the end of the cycle. We manage risk really well. But also, like, I like to really look in the mirror and say, what did I miss? What could I have done better? You know, and then, you know, share all of these, the returns and everything. And then get into the current portfolio and our thoughts. This is where we're at. These are the purchases we made. This is where my head's at moving forward. So I hope it's, you know, really valuable for people, not just the transparency of it, But also just kind of like having this review every once in a while of, kind of auditing ourselves and just holding ourselves accountable a little bit.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[38:54] That's a great practice. And I think your drive is to become a better crypto investor. And I think some of that's rubbing off on TDR Pro members and listeners of the podcast. So thanks so much, Mike. I'll talk to you again next week. Got to end with this, of course. None of this has been financial advice. You guys know this is an investor journal and we're on the journey right alongside you. Until next time, stay curious.